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Bear Stumbles Sunday, March 16, 2008

Posted by croatz in capital markets.
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Within the last hour there have been monumental developments in the American Financial System: Bear Stearns Co. was acquired by the Federal Reserve via JPMorgan for $2/share. Yes, that’s correct the FED will act as the executor of Bear’s assets in order to ensure an orderly unwinding. At least that’s what they are hoping for. The implications to rest of the banking system are huge – the true value of mortgage assets in the current market is nothing.

Will the contagion spread?

Weekly Reading Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Posted by croatz in capital markets, finance, stock market.
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The Economist: Business This Week

PIMCO’s Bill Gross: Pyramids Crumbling

Hussman Funds John Hussman: Minding the Hinges on Pandora’s Box

MSN Money’s Jubak’s Journal: Profit from a Stupid Energy Policy

Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff: Eyes Wide Shut

Novagold Roars Back Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Posted by croatz in capital markets, finance.
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The gold rush is on, with the gold-tracking ETF (GLD) closing at $86.78 (each share represents 1/10th of an oz of gold) – up $20/oz today – and implying a current price of $867.80 per oz of gold held in the ETF.

Recent Development: Government upholds Environmental Permits awarded for the Nome Project – expected to reach commercial production levels in Q1 ‘08

Share Price: Closed at $11.36 up more than 86% from its December 17 low of $6.08

Nova – Where do we go from here? Saturday, December 15, 2007

Posted by croatz in capital markets, finance.
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Although Novagold’s loss was the result of a company-specific event, it is not alone in the industry in experiencing these risks. Rapidly rising mining costs are an industry-wide risk, especially when coupled with lenders insistence on using drastically lower commodity prices to assess the economic viability of new mines. Another industry-wide risk that has been increasing is the geo-political factor that many mining firms face from operating in volatile regions around the world. As Novagold operates mines in countries with strong legal and political systems they have dramatically lower risks in these areas versus the industry as a whole.

The Good: Lawsuits with Barrick settled – Novagold can move forward on the important Donlin Creek project

Donlin Creek – Considerable Gold Reserves, Exploration Stage

Geo-Political Risk: Minimal, Nationalization is not a concern

The Ugly: Novagold is down another 16% to $7.98 since dropping from $20.24 to $9.48 in a single day

Novagold Chart

Sources:

Details of Novagold Barrick Settlement

Chart courtesy of BigCharts.com

Novagold’s 5-day performance vs GLD

Round Two: Writedowns Monday, December 10, 2007

Posted by croatz in finance, stock market.
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UBS is taking another $10B writedown on top of the $3.5B it had already written down due to the US mortgage crisis.

Of note is the $13B capital injection the bank received ($11 from the Swiss government and another $2B from a state-run middle-east investment house) illustrating just how expensive and difficult it has become to raise capital in the open markets.

Is this the beginning of Round Two of the credit crunch?

Novagold Responds Sunday, December 2, 2007

Posted by croatz in capital markets, finance.
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In this Street.com interview Novagold CEO Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse reaffirms the value of his firm’s mining portfolio and prospects for developing the halted Galore Creek project.

Talks about: Price Estimates Used, Prospects for continuing Galore Creek, Novagold’s future

Watch the video here:

Novagold Responds